It’s hard to believe a few thousand votes in Iowa can have so shaken the political landscape, but the front-loading of the primary process–originally meant to be a way to settle on Hillary Clinton early so she could concentrate on defeating the GOP in November–has backfired badly for the Democratic Party establishment.
Unless he makes a terrible mistake in this weekend’s WMUR debate in New Hampshire, Obama will be the strong favorite to win in the Granite State. That leaves 18 days until the South Carolina primary, but even that time will probably not be enough for Clinton to fight her way back. With half of South Carolina’s Democrats being African American, her chances won’t be good.
Many blacks have been waiting to see if Obama was for real. Now that white Iowa has voted for him, they will likely move strongly toward him. That was the pattern among black voters when Obama ran for the Senate in Illinois.
Sources within John Edward’s campaign tell me that if Edwards drops out (unlikely before New Hampshire), he will throw his support to Obama. Should the Illinois senator win New Hampshire and South Carolina, it will be next to impossible to prevent him from becoming the nominee on February 5, Super Tuesday.
The only way he gives Edwards or Clinton a second wind is to mess up. The press will get more intense, increasing the likelihood of a crippling mistake. But so far, Obama has suffered no more than the normal number of relatively minor gaffes. One or two flat debate performances won’t be enough to sink him. It will take the kind of big gaffe that only rarely transforms campaigns.
Clinton and Edwards aides will spin Iowa like crazy, but that is the new reality of American politics.
