Alcs Odds And Pick Royals Odds On Favorite To Win Fall Classic

The big difference here compared to the Red Sox situation is the Orioles lost their first two at home and will have to try and gain their momentum on the road. The other big difference is that Baltimore will only fetch 11-to-1 odds to win the series at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, while Kansas City is -2500 (bet $25 to win $1). Once Boston did it, it was no longer impossible to come back down 3-0. The Royals are now 10-to-11 favorites to win the World Series. The Orioles are 25-to-1.

Miguel Gonzalez takes the mound today in hopes of being the Orioles’ version of Derek Lowe (2004 ALCS Game 4 starter) and get the rally started. He’ll be opposed by Royals’ left-hander Jason Vargas, who is the -110 favorite. The total is set at 7.5 UNDER -120. Tuesday’s 2-1 Royals win was the first UNDER of the three ALCS games.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 - 4:07 pm (ET) - TV: TBS Royals lead 3-0Series Price: Royals -2500/+1100 (Westgate), opened Orioles -140 (South Point)Season Series: Royals won 4-3World Series odds: Royals, 10/11, Giants 8/5, Cardinals 5/1, Orioles 25/1 (Westgate)

Game 4 Linemakers lean: The Royals have done everything well as they’ve gone 7-0 (+8.4 units) in the playoffs. The Herrera-Davis-Holland bullpen trio locked down a tight game last night. Eric Hosmer has turned into Steve Garvey and Mike Moustakas is fielding like George Brett. They have made quite a few new fans in Las Vegas with bettors riding their wave. There’s nothing like the hot-hand at the craps table and KC is on that epic roll.

We’re going to look for an OVER game today despite Miguel Gonzalez closing his regular season strong with a 4-2 record and 1.62 ERA in six starts. But he hasn’t pitched since Sept. 28. Vargas was outstanding in Game 1 of the ALDS at Anaheim, but closed the regular season out with a 9.00 ERA in his last four starts. OVER 7.5 runs is the main play here.

Prediction: Royals 8-4

Series scheduleGame 1, Friday: Royals 8-6, James Shields (15-8, 3.29 ERA) vs. Chris Tillman (14-6, 3.26) -125, 7 OVER -120Game 2, Saturday: Royals 6-4, Yordano Ventura (13-10, 3.15) vs. Bud Norris (16-8, 3.51) -125, 7Game 3, Monday: Royals 2-1, Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.54) -107, 7.5 vs. Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13)Game 4, Tuesday: Miguel Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23) vs. Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71) -110, 7.5 UN -120

Weather: Sunny, wind left to right 5-10 mph, 68 degrees

2014 Royals/Orioles trends * Kansas City is 7-0 (+8.4) in the playoffs. * Kansas City is 45-39 (-7.6 units) at home. * Kansas City is 18-7 (+10 units) when playing on Wednesday. * Kansas City is 69-52 (+7.4 units) vs. right-handed starters. * Kansas City is 50-35 (+14.3) vs. winning teams. * Baltimore is 48-36 (+22.3) in road games. * Baltimore is 23-19 (+5.2 units) vs. left-handers starters. * Baltimore is 16-8 (+9.2 units) when playing on Wednesday. * Baltimore is 43-26 (+29.6 units) following a loss. * Baltimore is 48-30 (+24.2 units) vs. winning teams.

ORIOLES-ROYALS PROPSTotal Strikeouts thrown by: Miguel Gonzalez (Bal) Over 4.0 +110 Under 4.0 -130

Will Miguel Gonzalez (Bal) allow a Home Run? Yes -130 No +110

Total Strikeouts thrown by: Jason Vargas (KC) Over 4.0 +110 Under 4.0 -130

Will Jason Vargas (KC) allow a Home Run? Yes -110 No -110

Most Total Bases (Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0) Adam Jones (Bal) -110 Eric Hosmer (KC) -110

Most Total Bases (Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0) J.J. Hardy (Bal) -110 Alcides Escobar (KC) -110

Most Total Bases (Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0) Steve Pearce (Bal) -110 Alex Gordon (KC) -110

Will Nelson Cruz (Bal) hit a Home Run? Yes +375 No -450

Total Number of Different Players to Throw a Pitch in Game 4 Over 10.0 -110 Under 10.0 -110

Total Runs+Hits+Errors by: Orioles+Royals Over 25.5 -110 Under 25.5 -110

**Players must start for action, no Parlays, game must go at least 8.5 or 9 innings for action