Until the returns come rolling in, Hillary Clinton’s next move will shrouded be mystery. But no matter what happens tonight, Barack Obama’s mission going forward is pretty clear: blunt Clinton’s media momentum and
Assuming that Obama doesn’t deliver a knockout blow with wins in Texas and Ohio–tonight’s riskiest bet, as I wrote earlier–here’s how he’ll do it.
Emphasize the delegates. As my formidable colleague Jonathan Alter demonstrates in his biting new Web column, the math required to get Clinton through the primary process with a pledged-delegate lead is preposterous. Obama is currently winning by about 160 delegates. Assuming that Clinton wins each of the next 16 races by much-too-generous margins, she’ll still trail her rival at the end of regulation by 56 delegates–leaving the nomination in the hands of squeamish superdelegates who won’t be particularly eager to upend the will of the people. As you can guess, the Obama campaign will continue to crow about the delegate math in the weeks to come. Even if Clinton wins Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island by the margins predicted by the latest polls, she’ll emerge with a net gain of only 12 delegates, according to Slate’s Delegate Calculator; in fact, a 24-point Obama victory in Vermont–his latest poll lead–would cancel out the “predicted” two-point Clinton win in Texas. In that case, expect Team Obama to say that its man trailed by 20 points a few weeks back and still fought Clinton to a delegate draw. It’s a fair point. The Clinton Comeback narrative may drown them out for a few days. But in the six weeks between now and Pennsylvania, the all-important superdelegates will surely take a look at the math–and, they hope, flock to Obama’s side. The better the candidate does tonight–a win in Texas would help–the more attention his argument will receive.
Unveil new superdelegate endorsements. This morning on MSNBC, Tom Brokaw informed Joe Scarborough–and stunned-looking Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe–that the Obama camp has “50 [pro-Obama superdelegates] that they’ve identified who are ready to go public before too long,” according to “sources close” to the campaign. If Brokaw’s reporting is accurate, expect Team Obama to drop the names shortly after tonight’s results are finalized. Why wait? To rain on a potential Clinton parade–or kick her while she’s down. In case of a Clinton sweep, Obama is hoping that his net gain of 50 superdelegates–making nearly 100 on the month, as compared to Clinton’s two–will compete with (or at the very least, complicate) the emerging “Clinton comeback” story line. (I think it would; 50 supers trumps 12 pledged delegates.) And if Obama ends up winning in Texas, the new tally will only make Clinton’s delegate math look more miserable. Either way, the senator is hoping for a snowball effect.
Drop the February money bomb. When the Clinton campaign revealed last week that it had raked in $35 million for the month of February, rumors swirled about Obama’s receipts. Most reporters pegged his take at $50-60 million–a staggering sum that, if accurate, would shatter the previous one-month fundraising record. Everyone expected Team Obama to leak the stats ASAP. But they stayed mum. Tonight, we may know why. With nearly half a million donors giving an average of $100-150 each, it’s highly unlikely that Obama failed to clobber Clinton in the cash contest. Expect the final numbers to come out right around results time, or shortly thereafter–either to sweeten a victory or counter Clinton’s claims of a comeback. If Clinton sweeps, the stats won’t exactly keep her off the front pages. But some good news is better than none.
Win. The best way to reclaim the narrative? Cold, hard W’s. Luckily, the next two contests–Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on Tuesday–are tailor-made for Obama. The Equality State’s caucuses favor the hopemonger’s highly-organized, highly-motivated operation; he’s won 11 of 12 to date, including face-offs in nearby South Dakota, Idaho and Colorado. And Mississippi has the largest
And keep in mind: Obama may be trailing in today’s final pre-primary polls, but in states with sizable black and/or student populations he tends to outperform those numbers on decision day. Both Ohio and Texas qualify. In Wisconsin, his final results topped the polls by 12 points; in Virginia, nine points; in Missouri, seven points; and in Georgia, 16 points. The reason for the last-minute leap: pollsters base their predictions of who will show up on Election Day on past turnout, so they’re liable to underestimate the impact of the new voters that Obama has consistently attracted. If black and young voter turnout is up disproportionately in Texas and Ohio–especially if it’s enough to swamp Latinos in the former state–Obama could still eke out a sweep. Not likely, but possible.
