A second period of independence is already underway. Pro-democracy groups in at least two dozen African countries are calling for economic reform and an end to autocratic systems that breed corruption and aggravate poverty. The end of the cold war undermined Marxist regimes in Angola, Mozambique and Ethiopia, where a rebel offensive last spring forced Lt. Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam to flee. For many African nations on the cusp of change, two paths seemed possible: open elections as in Benin and Cape Verde, where opposition candidates have dislodged longtime strongmen; or the violent disintegration that befell Liberia, Somalia and now Zaire, where unrest threatens the regime of President Mobutu Sese Seko.
A towering figure in Africa’s fight for freedom, Kaunda led Zambia to independence from Britain, and later supported liberation struggles in Zimbabwe and South Africa. At home, he brooked no opposition, making Zambia a one-party state in 1972. The country he inherited in 1964 was comparatively prosperous: $2 billion in foreign reserves, the makings of a thriving agricultural economy and a decent infrastructure left over from colonialism. But Kaunda, now 67, nationalized industries and imposed cooperative farming. He subsidized health and education, but at the expense of agricultural production. Whipsawed by falling copper prices and the rising cost of petroleum, Zambia slipped into a steep decline that put it at the mercy of the International Monetary Fund. After austerity measures proved highly unpopular with his people, Kaunda broke with the IMF in 1987. That only made matters worse: when Zambia stopped making payments on its $7 billion in debt, foreign aid dried up.
Zambia’s misery proved his undoing. Riots broke out in June 1990 after the government raised food prices, leaving Kaunda with little choice: he backed off the price hike and, last December, legalized opposition parties. The strongest of them was the Movement for Multiparty Democracy–a loose confederation of businessmen, academics, trade unionists, clergymen and students–which found a presidential candidate in union leader Frederick Chiluba, 48. A onetime Marxist who studied credit management in New York, Chiluba had an easy campaign, decrying soaring unemployment and inflation and abysmal health-care and education systems. Kaunda warned that without his leadership, the nation of more than 70 different tribes would dissolve into chaos, but it did no good. A victorious Chiluba, sworn in as president last Saturday in Lusaka, the capital, offered a lesson to his neighbors: “By this election we are giving a model to the rest of Africa to show them that it is possible to change government peacefully.”
But just north in Zaire, Mobutu missed the point. He was digging in his heels-six weeks after riots touched off by disgruntled Army units in the capital, Kinshasa, plunged his country into political chaos and galvanized the opposition to renew calls for his removal. Rather than give up power, Mobutu risked international isolation, alienating even the United States, which propped up his anticommunist dictatorship for 26 years. And profitable years they were. To buy political loyalty and line his pockets, Mobutu, 61, has looted Zaire–a country rich in copper, cobalt and diamonds–and reduced it to one of the world’s poorest nations.
Mobutu has toyed with the idea of sharing power, vowing last year to guide his country toward open elections. But a national conference to decide Zaire’s future collapsed last August amid claims by the Sacred Union, a coalition of nearly 150 opposition groups, that Mobutu had rigged the proceedings to ensure his survival. In mid-October, he reluctantly installed his old nemesis Etienne Tshisekedi, a prodemocracy lawyer, as prime minister–then sacked him 48 hours later in a clash over who would control the real levers of power. Showing no sign of leaving or giving up the crown, Mobutu spends much of his time aboard his yacht on the Congo River. Opposition leaders audaciously formed a rival government, and called on the Zairian Army for support. Their hope: that the rising tide of democracy in Africa would leave Mobutu the odd man out.
