Can this soft-spoken housewife turned politician possibly bring down the most durable of all living Asian strongmen? At 75, increasingly isolated among his family and a circle of yes men, Suharto seems to be retreating into the conspiratorial atmosphere of the 1960s, when he came to power fighting communists. In his state-of-the-union address last week, Suharto ignored the broad front of Indonesians who want more democracy. He praised the police crackdown on Megawati’s supporters, in which four people died. And he blamed the riots on the communists – a group he had effectively wiped out by the 1970s. ““These riots had nothing to do with democracy,’’ thundered the six-term president. ““There will be no change in the political system.''

Suharto never mentioned Megawati. But it’s clear he fears she may run for president herself – otherwise, why would he be so eager to undermine her? In June the president’s men orchestrated a ““rebel’’ congress of the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party (one of Suharto’s ministers presiding) to oust Megawati as its leader. The move backfired. Demonstrators began gathering daily outside the PDI’s Jakarta headquarters to support Megawati, who took to the steps and urged Indonesians to fight for democracy. They did. When young pro-government thugs and security forces stormed the building, the attack triggered Indonesia’s worst political riots in 20 years.

Many Indonesians are now comparing Megawati to Corazon Aquino of the Philippines, who led the ““People Power’’ movement to oust Ferdinand Marcos. The two former housewives share a reputation for integrity. Sukarno left Indonesia bankrupt and hungry, but at least he did not pass on a family dynasty. Megawati entered politics only after her father’s death, and with family assets that add up to no more than five gas stations. Nor did she inherit the style of her unbending father. After the riots, Megawati retreated to her suburban Jakarta villa, where she told NEWSWEEK she knew her mere presence on the streets could trigger more bloodshed. ““Right now,’’ she said in her soft voice, ““it’s difficult for me to leave my house.''

She is no Suharto. The president has raised average incomes from roughly $100 to $850, but he has also steered billions of dollars in business to his six children. They own assets from oil to the exclusive ““national car’’ monopoly recently granted the youngest son, Tommy. There are signs that Suharto may bequeath the presidency itself to his daughter, Tutut. All this embarrasses Indonesian businessmen, who say it makes them look provincial in a global economy. The ““national car’’ deal brought sharp protests from Japanese and American carmakers – though barely a peep from Washington, which has long seen Suharto as the unifying force of a nation of more than 190 million people spread out over 13,000 islands.

That, increasingly, is how Suharto sees himself: a man of global stature. He has shed his own reticence to become a force behind new regional security talks in Southeast Asia. At home, he has never allowed even a strong number two, and is not about to accommodate Megawati, who was interrogated by police for the second time last week. So far, however, the authorities have not dared to name Megawati Sukarnoputri as the leader of the democratic challenge. To do so would only add more weight to her powerful name.