Is that the stuff of revolution? The organizers of the Cacak protest, a coalition called Alliance for Change, plan a “summer of rallies” across the country, finishing up in downtown Belgrade. Another pro-democracy group staged a demo on Friday in Novi Sad. There is a tradition of anti-Milosevic protests; in 1997 up to 1 million demonstrators rallied in the capital. Milosevic survived–but that was before the Kosovo war. NATO bombing caused massive damage to the Serb economy, which was already a basket case. The government has no money to rebuild and little hope of outside help as long as Milosevic is in charge. And the recent public discontent has a sharper edge. Serbian President–and Milosevic ally–Milan Milutinovic was heckled during a recent speech; fans at the national soccer final sang anti-Milosevic songs. The Serbian Orthodox Church has called for the regime to go. But what hasn’t changed since 1997 is the opposition–a group of bickering politicians who’ve never agreed on anything other than their disgust with Milosevic.
That is a problem for Washington. The administration wants Milosevic out. During the war, President Clinton issued a “finding” authorizing the CIA to undermine his regime. But even if Milosevic were to fall, none of his squabbling opponents has enough popular support to overcome his well-entrenched police state. Nor is there a viable replacement among senior military figures, some of whom, like the president they serve, are indicted war criminals.
The dream of Milosevic foes: the church, the opposition–and perhaps even disgruntled military units–join forces against the regime. At Cacak, long an opposition stronghold, some troops got involved: one Army unit ferried people in trucks around police blockades. The church, more revered than powerful, might emerge as a unifying force. The patriarchate is on the verge of losing control of its most important holy sites, all in Kosovo, yet it condemns Milosevic not for the loss of its sacred landmarks but for his brutality against the Kosovar Albanians. “The evil and suffering the Albanian people endured in Kosovo was… a product of the undemocratic regime of Slobodan Milosevic,” said Bishop Artemije, a leading church official.
Yet Milosevic is nothing if not a survivor. For now, he can ignore the church, but he has to keep the Army happy. So far, said NATO Commander Wesley Clark in testimony on Capitol Hill last week, he has. Clark added that Milosevic is “an expert at dividing the opposition.” A case in point is the fate of Vuk Draskovic, who led the protests in the winter of 1997. Milosevic later gave him a government post but no power. Among activists, that sealed Draskovic’s reputation as an opportunist; these days he’s on the sidelines.
What can Washington do? Maybe just sit it out. The summer may be protest season, but some in Belgrade think events may fall behind schedule this year. Its infrastructure demolished, Yugoslavia will have only sporadic heat and power during the winter. For Milosevic, that may be the most dangerous season of all.
