But Belgrade still isn’t Warsaw or Prague, circa 1989. Yugoslavia was always a case apart. Its communism was homegrown, not imposed by the Kremlin, and the Yugoslavs nurtured an independent streak. Once the world changed, Milosevic was more cunning than old guards in other countries; he turned the disintegration of Yugoslavia to his advantage by playing to Serb nationalism. Opposition leaders Vuk Draskovic and Zoran Djindjic have at times tried to outdo Milosevic at appealing to ethnic pride–and hatred. Neither will ever be confused with Vaclav Havel or Lech Walesa. Nevertheless, something is stirring.
Just listen to the young people in the streets. “I want to live in a normal, democratic country… where people pay taxes and think whether to buy a second car,” says Jelena Hrba, a Belgrade University English major. Protest leaders have listened–and started talking more about democracy (which is popular with the young) than about nationalist sentiment (which is not). Pure opportunism, perhaps. But mass movements can sometimes drive their leaders as much as the leaders drive the masses.
The “velvet revolution” game has changed. In 1989 the Eastern Europeans had courageous determination, brilliant tactics and lucky breaks–the internal crisis within the Soviet Union and strong Western support for their cause. But what happens now in the Kremlin is irrelevant to Belgrade. Meanwhile, the West’s role remains uncertain, even though both Washington and the European Union have begun pushing Milosevic to back down. Last week he agreed to accept some–but not all–of his opponents’ electoral victories, a move that was scornfully rejected by the demonstrators. Tactically, the Serbian protesters have yet to prove they can outwit their wily opponent, and they need more support from the working class. In the last several weeks, however, they have shown plenty of determination–and the same kind of idealism that fueled the earlier revolutions. If they are now both smart and lucky, they have a chance to bring Milosevic down. But only a chance. History does not guarantee any replays.
