But there is a more fundamental issue at work. The antiwar majority in Western Europe, and elsewhere, believes instinctively that this U.S. initiative is nothing more than a naked demonstration of military power. It is not predicated on self-defense (Afghanistan) or on the protection of others (Bosnia, Kosovo). Rather, it is a crude attempt to impose U.S. hegemony on a strategically important region–and, if it succeeds, the invasion will establish a dangerous new precedent for the 21st century. Pre-emptive strikes were the favored weapons of Hitler and Mussolini in the 1930s, mimicked many years later by Israel in 1967. If the United States were to occupy Iraq, the impact of such an event could destabilize the entire post-cold-war order. Regional powers–China, India and South Africa–could use the example to protect their own interests.
Underlying America’s aggression is the crude understanding of what makes the Arab world important: the world’s largest reserves of cheaply accessible oil. That’s why in 1945 the U.S. State Department declared that the oil reserves of the Arabian Peninsula constituted “a stupendous source of strategic power, and one of the great material prizes in world history.” That reality explains the various oil wars that have already taken place, as well as the one currently being planned. The argument that oil is not a motivation because the war effort is costing the United States a vast amount of money misses the mark. Initial investments always constitute a risk–but Iraq’s oil could offer the United States a potentially huge economic return.
America’s misguided Iraq adventure is driven by other factors, of course. Deposing Saddam Hussein would provide America with an Arab country from which it can politically recast the region, something that cannot be done through Israel or Saudi Arabia. Several senior ideologues within the Bush regime, unlike some of their European apologists, make no attempt to conceal that desire from the public. And the geostrategic implications are not limited to the Arab world. Just as the U.S. bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II were shots across the Soviet bow, so the occupation of Iraq is partially designed as a demonstration of imperial power to the big players in Europe and the Far East–principally China.
But the real prize is oil, and influence over big producers. U.S. hawks aim to privatize Iraq’s oil industry, once Saddam is ousted–which would thoroughly destabilize OPEC. They also want to reimpose the dollar as Iraq’s reserve currency. In 2000, Saddam began demanding that all oil exports be paid for in euros; if other countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, were to make the same switch, the effects on an already weak U.S. economy would be difficult to conceal. That surely has not escaped the thinking of President Bush, whose strategic philosophy can be simply stated: when the Empire needs a fillip, send in the Marines.
