Actually, Lebed insisted that he intended to rule democratically. He is feared by rival political leaders, all of whom applauded his dismissal, but ordinary Russians have made him the country’s most popular politician. Still, after four months in office as national-security chief, the 46-year-old retired general had become the loosest cannon in Russian politics. At times, his high-handed independence served the country well; he made peace in Chechnya largely through the force of his own will, and now that he is gone, the breakaway republic may slide back into war. But Lebed quarreled and crossed swords with almost everyone he encountered in the Kremlin. He complained loudly about corruption in high places and warned pointedly of rising discontent in the army. “I was a black sheep in the herd,” he boasted. “It was only a matter of time before they sacked me.”

His chances of succeeding Yeltsin may also be a matter of time. The 65-year-old president faces risky heart-bypass surgery next month. If Yeltsin dies soon, Lebed would have a good shot at winning the election that must be held within 90 days of a president’s demise. But the Yeltsin team is gambling that the president’s health will hold up. If he can survive until nearer the end of his term in the year 2000, Lebed’s challenge may weaken as he waits in the political wilderness. “Politicians here have very few chances to run effectively for long if they are out of power,” said Sergei Karaganov, a member of Yeltsin’s presidential advisory council. Already, Lebed was complaining about the loss of his perks. “How is it possible,” he asked, “to carry out one’s duties when you’ve been deprived of transport, communications and the means of influencing things?” With no governmental strings to pull, and with little access to the pro-Yeltsin news media, Lebed could eventually suffer the same fate that befell Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist candidate who lost so ignominiously to Yeltsin in last July’s presidential election.

Of course, Lebed is no Zyuganov, a phlegmatic apparatchik who lacks the general’s deep-voiced charisma. He is, in fact, more like the Boris Yeltsin who was dumped from the Soviet Politburo by Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987 and came back to haunt Gorbachev right out of office. It was probably inevitable that the men around Yeltsin notably Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and chief of staff Anatoly Chubais would be alarmed by Lebed’s growing popularity. The Kremlin made a heavy-handed effort to discredit him before he was fired. Interior Minister Anatoly Kulikov, a hardliner blamed by Lebed for much of the government’s bungling in Chechnya, accused the general of “a maniacal striving for power” and denounced his peace agreement with the separatists as “high treason.” Last week Kulikov claimed that Lebed was plotting a “mutiny” and said he wanted to create a “Russian Legion” of 50,000 men to take over the country. Lebed denied that he planned a coup, and even Chernomyrdin discounted the talk of “mutinies and putsches.” But he still accused Lebed of “homegrown Bonapartism.”

At the moment, there is no one in Yeltsin’s inner circle who would stand much of a chance of beating Lebed in a presidential election. Chernomyrdin, 58, is a plodding campaigner accused by some of tolerating high-level corruption. Chubais, 41, who used to run the unpopular privatization program, is one of the most disliked politicians in Russia. Given another year or two, however, the Kremlin might be able to promote Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, 60, as a presidential candidate. The feisty Luzhkov is regarded as the kind of local boss who gets things done. He was reelected earlier this year with 90 percent of the vote, but he still has to build a constituency outside Moscow.

Lebed has plenty of admirers, but little of the organization he will need if he is to gain strength while out of power. His old nationalist political party, the Congress of Russian Communities, is weak and divided. So far, fat-cat contributors are not rushing to support him, apparently fearing that he cannot be controlled. He recently reached out to Maj. Gen. Aleksandr Korzhakov, the scheming bodyguard dismisssed by Yeltsin earlier this year. Lebed and Korzhakov have some common enemies, notably Chubais, and Lebed may hope the former bodyguard can help with fund raising. But Korzhakov is a widely detested figure who cannot do Lebed’s image any good. “They are birds of a feather two generals,” Yeltsin sneered last week.

The Clinton administration did its best to stay out of the squabble in the Kremlin. Washington still can’t figure out where Lebed stands on some important issues; he has changed his position on the expansion of NATO several times, including twice last week. “If I were in the administration, I’d stay in touch with Lebed and his people to keep encouraging him to moderate his positions,” said Jack Matlock, the former U.S. ambassador to Moscow. “He has a streak of xenophobia, but that can be worked on.” Lebed had never travelled outside the former Soviet bloc until a trip to Brussels earlier this month. He has had little contact with Americans; he was scheduled to meet Defense Secretary William Perry in Moscow last week, but the session was aborted by his dismissal. Matlock said Lebed is “more powerful now that he has been kicked out of government and can criticize Yeltsin without restraint. It reminds me of Gorbachev’s ouster of Yeltsin. That gave Yeltsin the chance to make political hay out of all the mistakes Gorbachev and his people made.” Yeltsin also benefitted from the growth of the democratic movement, and Lebed has nothing comparable working to his advantage. But Yeltsin’s victory was largely a product of his own gutsy, often abrasive brand of politics and his unbridled personal ambition. Lebed has to hope that the same qualities will be enough to propel him all the way to the top.